By the end of the 2023 Liverpool will have emerged from recession with growth in both GVA and jobs, according to new data. Tony McDonough reports
Liverpool will spend much of 2023 in recession but will recover in the final quarter of the year to record growth in both jobs and GVA, new analysis shows.
Researchers at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) looked at the prospect for 50 locations across the UK for the coming year. The study was commissioned by law firm Irwin Mitchell for its City Tracker.
Similar to the rest of the UK, Liverpool’s economy is expected to contract for at least the first half of 2023. However, recovery is expected to begin in the second half with the last three months likely to be the strongest of the year.
According to the research, Liverpool’s employment level is expected to increase by 1.7% in the final quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. It estimates that employment at the end of 2022 stood at 334,500 and by the end of 2023, this figure will be 340,300.
Annual growth of GVA by the end of next year in Liverpool is expected to be 0.6%, which will take the size of the economy to £14.4bn. This is higher than all the other locations in the North West covered by the report.
Annual GVA growth in Manchester is expected to be around 0.1% with employment growth at 0.6% as the year ends.
The report says Liverpool has successfully boosted visitor numbers to the city in recent years. With the city set to host Eurovision in 2023, the accommodation and food services industry should see a boost despite wider cost-of-living pressures.
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Josie Dent, managing economist at Cebr, said: “2023 will be a difficult year for consumers and businesses in the North West. The cost-of-living crisis is expected to lead to falling economic activity.
“However, Cebr forecasts that economic growth will resume in the second half of 2023, with most cities expected to see an annual expansion in GVA by Q4 2023.”
In April 2022 Irwin Mitchell, a top 25 UK law firm, announced it was to open its first Liverpool office. Based at Horton House in Exchange Flags, the local office is headed up by Jonathan Betts.
Charlotte Rees-John, partner and head of Irwin Mitchell’s consumer sector, said: “Last year presented numerous challenges. The downward pressure on spending activity looks set to continue throughout the first half of 2023.
“The consumer sector has however been one of the most resilient, agile and innovative sectors in recent times. Those businesses that succeed during 2023 will be in a very strong position to take advantage of a more stable economic environment in 2024.”