No-deal Brexit could see North West house prices plummet

A study by accountancy giant KPMG has investigated the future of house prices across the UK regions, based on data from the Land Registry, when considering the impact of Brexit. Tony McDonough reports

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House prices could fall in the event of a no-deal Brexit, warns KPMG

 

Average house prices in the North West could plummet by £15,000 in the two years following a no-deal Brexit, new research claims.

A study by accountancy giant KPMG has investigated the future of house prices across the UK regions, based on data from the Land Registry, when considering the impact of Brexit.

According to its findings, the average house price in the North West in 2020 is set to be £167,000 if a deal is brokered. In such a scenario, KPMG expects price growth to slow to 1.6% this year, down from 3.2% in 2018. The research suggests that the market will rebound in 2020 with 2.1% growth.

However, the average value of a property in the North West would shrink to £152,000 if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal. The research estimates that the market would register 0.3% growth this year but shrink 6.1% in 2020.

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With the October 31 deadline still looming without any clear resolution, experts across all business sectors are trying to ‘wargame’ possible scenarios following a no-deal Brexit, with few projections painting a positive picture.

Adam Posner, head of property at KPMG in the North West, said: “Whatever lies ahead, we expect there to be some slowdown in the North West’s housing market as long as there remain concerns over the future of the UK economy and its relationship with Europe.

“However, it doesn’t detract from the fundamental factor driving the market – the lack of regional housing supply. Sale volumes will likely fall much more than prices – making Government housing delivery targets impossible to achieve and slowing new building across the sector.

“While there could be some fall in value, the North West market is relatively robust and has performed well, particularly compared to other UK regions. At least in the short term, for buyers, the dampening of prices could offer some relief and provide an opportunity to get onto the ladder.”

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